Weekly Market Update [Week Ended August 29th 2025]

Nigeria Tops OPEC Quota Again as Oil Output Climbs to 1.71mbpd in July 2025

Nigeria’s oil industry posted another modest recovery in July, with crude oil production (excluding condensates) rising slightly to 1.51 million barrels per day (mbpd) from 1.50mbpd in June. When condensates are factored in, total output averaged 1.71mbpd, higher than the 1.69mbpd recorded in June and a 9.9% year-on-year increase from July 2024. This marks the second consecutive month of gains — the first back-to-back increase seen in 2025.

The growth was supported by stronger flows from the Bonny terminal, where production rose by 12.7% to 8.07 million barrels in July, while the Forcados terminal also hit its highest monthly output of the year at 9.04 million barrels. In contrast, the Qua Iboe terminal slipped to 4.55 million barrels from 5.08 million in June.

Despite these improvements, production still lags the Federal Government’s 2025 budget assumption of 2.06mbpd at a benchmark price of $75 per barrel. However, Nigeria did manage to pump at 100.5% of its OPEC quota in July, a rare win given persistent challenges like pipeline vandalism, oil theft, and years of under-investment in upstream assets.

While the gains offer short-term currency stability and liquidity support, sustaining production growth and tackling structural risks in the oil sector remain critical for long-term investor confidence and fiscal stability.

Equities Update

NGX Slips as Banking and Consumer Goods Weigh on Performance

The Nigerian stock market ended the week on a softer note, with the All-Share Index (ASI) dipping by 0.50% to close at 140,296 points. This pared year-to-date returns to 36.31% from 37.00% in the prior week.

• Industrial Goods: Sector shed 0.36% as profit-taking hit cement majors after recent strong gains fueled by infrastructure optimism.
• Consumer Goods: Dropped 0.89%, reflecting selloffs in stocks such as Dangote Sugar, Honeywell Flour, and Cadbury.
• Oil & Gas: Fell marginally by 0.18%, with regulatory uncertainties keeping investors cautious.
• Banking: Led sectoral losses with a 1.21% decline, driven by profit-taking in names like Ecobank, Access, Zenith, FCMB, and Wema.

Overall, the market remains broadly positive, although some bearish sentiment has emerged as investors take profits following a prolonged rally.

Fixed Income Update

Treasury Bill Yields Spike as Liquidity Tightens

Nigeria’s treasury bills market saw notable yield increases across all maturities in the week ending August 29, reflecting tighter liquidity conditions and subdued demand.

• 91-day bill: Yield rose to 18.17% (from 17.26%).
• 182-day bill: Yield climbed to 19.45% (from 18.55%).
• 364-day bill: Posted the sharpest jump to 20.67% (from 19.17%) as investors demanded higher returns to offset inflation and government borrowing pressures.

Bonds: Average yields also moved higher, up to 16.94% from 16.50%.

Rising yields open opportunities for investors who can lock into higher rates, especially in the long term. However, the combination of tight liquidity and government borrowing needs means volatility will likely persist.Treasury bills remain suitable for short-term savings goals, while naira bonds carry risks for long-term wealth preservation due to inflation and currency depreciation.

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